Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Toronto FC host DC United in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 28, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET. Toronto FC are unbeaten in their last 3, while DC United have lost their last two; Goalorithm's model gives a Toronto FC win the highest probability among the listed outcomes.
What the model expects
Goalorithm's probabilities are estimates. The model orders the outcomes as a Toronto FC win (42.5%), then a DC United win (32.6%), then a draw (24.9%), and its likeliest result is a Toronto FC win. Expected goals are 2 for Toronto FC and 1.6 for DC United, pointing to scoring opportunities for both sides while leaving room for different outcomes.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 68.7% and under 2.5 goals at 31.3% on its goals outlook. It gives both teams a chance to score at 68.4%; its probability for at least one side to fail to score is 31.6%. The likeliest exact scores are 1-1 at 10.1%, 2-1 at 8.3% and 1-2 at 6.8%.
Form and standings
Toronto FC’s recent sequence is WDWLL. Across that run, the record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. The latest result was a 2-0 away win against New York Red Bulls on October 17; Toronto FC are unbeaten in their last 3.
DC United’s sequence reads LLWLD, amounting to 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and 7 goals scored and 14 conceded. The latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to FC Cincinnati on October 21, and DC United have lost their last two.