Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Stoke City host Bristol City in the Championship on Saturday, October 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Stoke arrive after a 1-0 away win against Derby on October 17; Bristol’s latest match was a 1-0 home defeat to Sheffield Utd on October 17, and they are on 2 defeats in a row. The model’s likeliest result is a Stoke City win.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s outcome probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Stoke City win (51%), then a Bristol City win (25.4%), then a draw (23.5%).
The goals projection points towards scoring: the model has over 2.5 goals at 68.7%, against under 2.5 goals at 31.3%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 68.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 31.8%. Expected goals are 2 for Stoke City and 1.6 for Bristol City, with a projection for each attack to contribute.
The most likely exact score is 1-1 at 9.5%, followed by 2-1 at 8.4% and 1-2 at 6.6%. Those scorelines include a draw and a win for either side, alongside the model’s likeliest outcome, a Stoke City win.
Form and standings
Stoke City’s recent sequence is WLWWW, with 4 wins and 1 defeat and 9 goals scored and 6 conceded across the listed games. Their latest result was a 1-0 away win against Derby on October 17. The run and scoring record provide the recent context for Stoke’s meeting with Bristol, while the model projects goals for both sides.