Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sporting Kansas City host Austin in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 8:30 p.m. ET at Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City. The model's likeliest result is a Sporting Kansas City win, while its outcome order is a Sporting Kansas City win (39.1%), then an Austin win (35.6%), then a draw (25.3%).
Both teams arrive after defeats. The model's goals forecast points to a match with scoring at both ends, while its likeliest exact score is 1-1. These probabilities are estimates; the figures describe a contest with a range of possible outcomes.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is a Sporting Kansas City win; its outcome order is a Sporting Kansas City win (39.1%), then an Austin win (35.6%), then a draw (25.3%).
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 67.2%, with under 2.5 goals at 32.8% for the alternative. The model gives both teams scoring 67.5%, while it gives at least one side failing to score 32.6%. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.6 for Austin.
The likeliest exact-score outcomes are 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.3%) and 1-2 (7%). These projections include a draw and wins for either side, with the expected-goals figures indicating a scoring contribution from both attacks.
Form and standings
Sporting Kansas City's recent sequence is LLDLW. Across that spell, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their latest result was a 3-1 home defeat to Real Salt Lake on October 17, and the current run is 2 defeats in a row.