Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 25, with kickoff set for 11:45 a.m. ET. The model's forecast points strongly towards the visitors, while Sparta Rotterdam arrive with a recent win and Ajax bring an unbeaten run into the fixture.
Ajax have scored freely across their recent matches, and the model expects them to carry that attacking output into Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam's latest result was also a win, but their recent record and the model's projection make this a demanding test.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is an Ajax win. Its outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Ajax win (64.8%), then a draw (18.5%), then a Sparta Rotterdam win (16.6%). These probabilities are estimates; they make Ajax the clear model choice, while still allowing for a draw or a Sparta Rotterdam win.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 71%, against under 2.5 goals at 29%. The model gives both teams to score 50.6%, while 49.4% covers the chance that at least one side fails to score. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sparta Rotterdam and 3 for Ajax, a projection that gives the visitors a substantial scoring edge.
The leading scorelines are 0-2 (10.5%), 0-3 (10%) and 1-2 (7.7%). Each points to an Ajax win, with the first two leaving Sparta Rotterdam without a goal. The model's overall lean is Ajax to win.
Form and standings
Sparta Rotterdam's most recent result was a 3-2 home win against Willem II on October 17. Across their latest 5 matches, their sequence is WDLLD: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 15 conceded. They are unbeaten in their last 2. The latest win offers a positive note, though the goals conceded across that stretch underline the scale of the challenge posed by Ajax.