Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
ADO Den Haag host Heerenveen in Eredivisie on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model points towards the visitors, while its expected-goals figures also give Heerenveen the larger attacking projection; that makes the balance between ADO Den Haag’s recent improvement and Heerenveen’s scoring output central to the contest.
The standings put the sides at different points in the table, but the recent results offer a more mixed picture than that gap alone suggests. ADO Den Haag arrive after a notable home result, and Heerenveen come off a convincing win of their own.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Heerenveen win (46.7%), then an ADO Den Haag win (28.9%), then a draw (24.4%). Its goal forecast leans towards an open game: over 2.5 goals at 70.7%, against under 2.5 goals at 29.3%, while 67.1% is assigned to both teams scoring and 32.9% to at least one side failing to score.
The expected-goals projection is ADO Den Haag 1.4 and Heerenveen 2.3, a forecast that gives the visitors the stronger scoring outlook. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10.2%; next come 1-2 at 8.7% and 1-3 at 6.7%. Those scorelines all leave room for ADO Den Haag to contribute, even as the wider model favours Heerenveen.
Taken together, the figures describe a match in which goals are more likely than a low-scoring contest, and both sides have a meaningful route onto the scoresheet. The visitors’ projection is not simply a call for a narrow result: the listed score possibilities include a draw as well as wins for Heerenveen. The expected-goals numbers give the clearest expression of the model’s view, with ADO Den Haag needing to make its opportunities count against a side forecast to produce more.