Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 25 at 7:15 a.m. ET. The model’s outcome ordering puts a home win ahead of an away win, while its expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Fortuna Sittard and 2.5 for Excelsior.
Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten in their last 3, while Excelsior have lost their last two. The model gives the home win and away win similar probabilities, with the draw less likely. These model probabilities are estimates.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Fortuna Sittard win (38.5%), then an Excelsior win (36.6%), then a draw (24.9%). Its likeliest result is a Fortuna Sittard win. The goals projection is over 2.5 goals at 67.4%; the model also gives both teams a chance of scoring, at 60.2%.
The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The leading scoreline is level, while the other listed outcomes feature an away win. The expected-goals figures point to a substantial attacking contribution from Excelsior, even though the model’s likeliest result is a home win.
Form and standings
Fortuna Sittard’s recent sequence is DDWLW. Across that run, they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-2 away draw with NEC Nijmegen on October 18, and they are unbeaten in their last 3.
Excelsior’s recent sequence is LLDLD, comprising 2 draws and 3 defeats and 6 goals scored and 15 conceded. They most recently suffered a 4-0 away defeat to Heerenveen on October 16, and are on a run of 2 defeats in a row. Their recent record includes a high goals-against tally, while the latest defeat extended their current losing run.