Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sparta Praha host Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET at Stadion Letná, Prague. Sparta Praha arrive with 3 points from 1 game and Lillestrom with 0 points from 1 game; Sparta Praha sit above Lillestrom. The model’s forecast gives the home side a clear result direction, while still allowing for a draw or an away win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Sparta Praha win (70.5%), then a draw (18.8%), then a Lillestrom win (10.7%). Its likeliest result is a Sparta Praha win, and its lean is Sparta Praha to win. The model’s view is therefore centred on a Sparta Praha win, but the draw and Lillestrom win remain part of its assessment.
The goals forecast gives over 2.5 goals at 62.2% and under 2.5 goals at 37.8%. The model puts both teams scoring at 51.2%, while at least one side fails to score at 48.8%. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sparta Praha and 0.8 for Lillestrom, pointing to a larger expected contribution from the hosts. The likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.9%). Those are separate possible outcomes within the model’s forecast, rather than a prediction that any one score is certain.
Form and standings
Sparta Praha sit 3rd in UEFA Europa League, with 3 points from 1 game. Lillestrom sit 24th in UEFA Europa League with 0 points from 1 game; Sparta Praha sit above Lillestrom. That gives the match a clear standings context.