Published October 1, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The San Diego Padres visit the Milwaukee Brewers in MLB on Sunday, October 4, with first pitch at 4:00 p.m. ET. Both clubs have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game at American Family Field.
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a clear advantage in its estimate of the result.
What the model expects
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers 69.8% to win and the San Diego Padres 30.2%; its likelier result is a Milwaukee Brewers win. Those probabilities are estimates, not certainties.
The model projects 5 runs for the Milwaukee Brewers and 3.8 for the San Diego Padres, with 8.8 overall. Its chance of the Milwaukee Brewers winning by two runs or more is 47.2%, compared with 19% for the San Diego Padres.
Pitching matchup
The probable starters are right-hander Logan Henderson for the Milwaukee Brewers and right-hander Michael King for the San Diego Padres. Logan Henderson of the Milwaukee Brewers comes in with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over 98⅓ innings (18 starts), while Michael King of the San Diego Padres has a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 185 innings (32 starts); Logan Henderson has the lower ERA.
The bullpen ERA is 3.40 for the Milwaukee Brewers, against 3.53 for the San Diego Padres; the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has the lower ERA. Probable starters can change before first pitch.