Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Rennes host OFI in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Rennes win, while OFI sit above Rennes in the table. That contrast gives the fixture a clear early-season story: the model leans towards the hosts, while OFI arrive with a win already on the board.
The match takes place at Roazhon Park, Rennes. Goalorithm's probabilities are estimates; they give Rennes 70.5%, a draw 15.8% and OFI 13.6%.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is a Rennes win. Its expected-goals figures are Rennes 2.5 and OFI 1, pointing to a forecast with the hosts supplying more of the projected scoring. The most likely exact score is 2-0 at 9.5%, followed by 2-1 at 9.1% and 1-1 at 8.1%.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 65.6% and under 2.5 goals at 34.4%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 56.8%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 43.2%. Those are separate views of the match: the expected total leans towards goals, but the model also allows for one team to be kept off the scoresheet. Its stated lean is Rennes to win.
The model and market do not assign the same weight to a home win: the model gives a Rennes win 70.5%, below the bookmakers' 79.3%. The model's direction is clear, though its assessment is less emphatic than the bookmakers' implied figure.