Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
QPR host Swansea in the Championship on Saturday, October 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Swansea win, while the table picture and recent form provide a contrasting backdrop: Swansea sit above QPR, and both teams come into the fixture after a defeat.
The match sets QPR's record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat across 5 games against Swansea's 4 wins and 1 defeat across the same span. The model expects a measured scoring pattern, with its goals forecast and exact-score probabilities pointing to several plausible outcomes rather than a single dominant scoreline.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Swansea win (47.2%), then a draw (31.7%), then a QPR win (21.1%). It gives QPR 21.1%, a draw 31.7% and Swansea 47.2%. The model's expected goals are 0.9 for QPR and 1.3 for Swansea, setting out its expected scoring for each side without promising a particular final score.
The model has under 2.5 goals at 62.1% and over 2.5 goals at 38%. It gives both teams scoring 43.2%; its estimate for at least one side failing to score, not necessarily a goalless draw, is 56.8%. Its likeliest exact scores are 0-0 at 13.7%, 1-1 at 13.5% and 0-1 at 12.9%.
Form and standings
Swansea sit above QPR. QPR are 9th in Championship with 17 points from 11 games; Swansea are 1st in Championship with 23 points from 11 games. Those are the teams' positions and points heading into this match, while the model's result probabilities offer its separate forecast for the fixture.