Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Portland Timbers host Charlotte in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:30 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest outcome is a Charlotte win; Portland Timbers are without a win in their last 5, while Charlotte are without a win in their last 2. The probabilities are estimates, and the model’s view puts an away win ahead of a draw or a home win.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Charlotte win (49.1%), then a Portland Timbers win (26.6%), then a draw (24.3%). Its expected-goals figures are 1.8 for Portland Timbers and 2 for Charlotte. The most likely exact score is 1-1 (9.7%), followed by 1-2 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.1%).
The goals model gives over 2.5 goals at 70.7% and under 2.5 goals at 29.3%. It assigns 70.4% to both teams scoring and 29.6% to at least one side failing to score. The projections point to goals as a prominent feature of the match, with scoring by both sides a strong possibility. The outcome probabilities, however, describe the chance of each result rather than a single scoreline.
Form and standings
Portland Timbers’ recent sequence is DLDLL, with 2 draws and 3 defeats and 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest outing was a 0-0 home draw with Colorado Rapids on October 17. That leaves them without a win in their last 5 heading into this fixture.
Charlotte’s sequence is DLWLW: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-2 away draw with Philadelphia Union on October 17, and they are without a win in their last 2. In the standings, Portland Timbers sit 11th in Western Conference with 34 points from 30 games, while Charlotte sit 5th in Eastern Conference with 47 points from 30 games.