Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Atlanta United FC host Chicago Fire in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The model’s likeliest result is a Chicago Fire win, though its forecast also gives weight to a draw and a home win.
The recent results offer a mixed picture: Atlanta United FC come off a 3-1 home defeat to Inter Miami on October 17, while Chicago Fire arrive after a 1-0 away defeat to New England Revolution on October 17. The standings show Chicago Fire sit above Atlanta United FC, and the model’s forecast adds a clear focus for the contest: whether Chicago Fire can turn its projected edge into a win despite its current run.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Chicago Fire win (43.7%), then an Atlanta United FC win (29.2%), then a draw (27.1%). Its expected goals are 1.5 for Atlanta United FC and 1.7 for Chicago Fire, giving the forecast a projected edge to Chicago Fire without ruling out a draw or an Atlanta United FC win.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 61.1% and under 2.5 goals at 38.9%. It puts both teams to score at 62.7%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 37.3%. Those figures point towards goals at both ends as a plausible scenario, but do not make it the only route the forecast allows.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.7%; the next listed scores are 1-2 at 8.4% and 2-1 at 7.3%. The score forecasts add detail to the broader result picture: the leading exact score is level, while another prominent possibility has Chicago Fire winning.