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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Philadelphia Union 0-1 New England Revolution: Match Analysis & Model Review

Philadelphia Union 0-1 New England Revolution in Major League Soccer, Saturday, October 24: how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 25, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

New England Revolution beat Philadelphia Union 0-1 in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with the visitors’ lead already in place by half-time. The final result was a 1-0 win for New England Revolution over Philadelphia Union, a narrow scoreline that left Philadelphia Union without a goal and made New England Revolution’s strike decisive.

The match was settled by the difference on the scoreboard: New England Revolution scored, while Philadelphia Union did not. The away side carried its advantage through the interval and finished with the win. There was no late change to the score, and the match ended as it stood at half-time.

How it unfolded

At the interval, the score was 0-1. New England Revolution had scored before the break, and Philadelphia Union had not found a goal. That left the home side needing to level the match after half-time.

Philadelphia Union finished with no goals; New England Revolution finished with one goal. With one goal in all, the goal before the interval remained the match’s only score. The final result therefore followed the shape established before half-time: New England Revolution held its advantage, while Philadelphia Union ended the match without an equaliser.

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The numbers

The scoreline was decided by a single margin on the scoreboard, but the pre-match model had made Philadelphia Union the more likely winner. Goalorithm assigned the home side 59.2% to win, with a draw at 21.9% and a New England Revolution win at 18.9%.

Those estimates framed a different expectation from the result on the pitch. The model had given Philadelphia Union the strongest individual outcome probability, while New England Revolution’s win was assigned 18.9%. The final score supplied the answer: the away side converted its opportunity into the match-winning goal, and Philadelphia Union’s total stayed at no goals.

How the model called it

These probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, the model’s most likely outcome was Philadelphia Union to win; the game instead finished with a 1-0 win for New England Revolution over Philadelphia Union. As the model’s assessment put it, the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

That gap is the central analytical point from the match. Philadelphia Union entered with the model’s leading win probability, but New England Revolution produced the outcome that mattered on the scoreboard. The pre-match view captured a preference for a home win, not a certainty, and the away side’s goal turned the less-favoured possibility into the final result.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Talen Energy Stadium

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

The model before the game

Philadelphia Union
59.2%
Draw
21.9%
New England Revolution
18.9%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

Open the Match Center

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