Published September 29, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Atlanta Braves 6–2 Philadelphia Phillies. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves in MLB on Thursday, October 1, with first pitch at 2:00 p.m. ET. Both clubs have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game; the latest meeting was a 5-3 home win over the Philadelphia Phillies on September 29.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s estimates give the Atlanta Braves 60.7% to win and the Philadelphia Phillies 39.3%. The model’s likelier result is an Atlanta Braves win.
The model projects 4.8 runs for the Atlanta Braves and 4.1 for the Philadelphia Phillies, with 8.9 in all. Its chance of an Atlanta Braves win by two runs or more is 40.6%; for the Philadelphia Phillies, it is 25.3%.
Form and standings
The Atlanta Braves finished the regular season at 94-68, with +116 and 742 runs scored and 626 allowed; the Atlanta Braves have the better record. The Philadelphia Phillies finished at 88-74, with +15 and 713 runs scored and 698 allowed.
The Atlanta Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games, with 22 runs scored and 21 allowed; their results, most recent first, are WLWLL. The Philadelphia Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games, with 12 runs scored and 27 allowed, and their results, most recent first, are LWLLL.