Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB on Monday, October 5, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm's model makes a Tampa Bay Rays win its likelier result, but the win probabilities leave this matchup almost evenly split. The season records and the Tampa Bay Rays’ recent results add context, while the model projects the same run total for each club.
What the model expects
The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays 50.3% to win and the New York Yankees 49.7%; those probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Its expected runs are 4.2 for the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.2 for the New York Yankees, or 8.4 combined. The model puts the chance of a win by two runs or more at 32.2% for the Tampa Bay Rays and 32.5% for the New York Yankees. Its likelier result is a Tampa Bay Rays win, though the close split in the win probabilities leaves room for either side to come out on top.
Form and standings
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 98-64 overall record, a +86 run differential, and 736 runs scored and 650 allowed. The New York Yankees are 93-68, with a +138 run differential and 739 runs scored and 601 allowed; the Tampa Bay Rays have the better record. The season lines give the game a broader context, but the model's expected runs point to an even scoring projection rather than a projected gap between the clubs.
The Tampa Bay Rays went 2-3 in their last 5 games, with 23 runs scored and 23 allowed; their results, most recent first, were LWWLL. The latest was a 7-3 road loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on September 27. That stretch gives the Tampa Bay Rays a recent sequence to bring into the matchup, although the model's game projection remains level on expected runs.