Published September 28, 2026 · Updated September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis City. Read the match analysis →
Preview
New York Red Bulls host St. Louis City in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, September 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the model identifying the visitors as the likeliest winners. Both sides arrive on winning runs, and the model’s expected-goals figures point to a match with scoring potential at both ends.
The probabilities are estimates. The match is at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, and the model’s likeliest result is a St. Louis City win, while its leading exact-score forecast is a draw.
What the model expects
The model gives the outcomes in this order: a St. Louis City win (48%), then a New York Red Bulls win (28.1%), then a draw (24%). Expected goals are 1.2 for New York Red Bulls and 1.9 for St. Louis City.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 58.8% and under 2.5 goals at 41.2%. Its both-teams-to-score figure is 61.2%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 38.8%. These are the model’s goal projections, not bookmaker probabilities.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10.8%, followed by 0-0 at 8.4% and 0-2 at 8.3%. That score forecast is separate from the match-outcome forecast, which makes a St. Louis City win likeliest. The bookmakers’ outcome order is a St. Louis City win (51.4%), then a New York Red Bulls win (25.6%), then a draw (23%); the model gives a St. Louis City win 48%, below the bookmakers' 51.4%.