Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Toronto FC host CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Toronto FC win, but the forecast also allows for a draw or an away win. Both sides have defeats in their recent form, and 3 defeats in a row is the hosts’ current run.
The latest results give the fixture a contrasting backdrop: Toronto FC suffered a 2-0 away defeat to Nashville SC on September 26, while CF Montreal recorded a 3-1 home win against FC Cincinnati on September 26. The model expects goals and gives both teams a substantial chance of scoring, setting up an intriguing test of whether the latest results carry into this meeting.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Toronto FC 48.2%, a draw 23.6% and CF Montreal 28.2%; its likeliest result is a Toronto FC win. The model’s outcome order is a Toronto FC win (48.2%), then a CF Montreal win (28.2%), then a draw (23.6%). The bookmaker comparison is straightforward: the model gives a Toronto FC win 48.2%, in line with the bookmakers' 49%.
Expected goals are 2.5 for Toronto FC and 1.6 for CF Montreal. The leading exact-score forecasts are 2-1 at 8%, 1-1 at 7.5% and 3-1 at 6.5%. Each projected scoreline has both teams scoring.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 76.2% and under 2.5 goals at 23.8%. It gives both teams scoring 72.6%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 27.4%. Its lean is over 2.5 goals. The expected-goals figures and score forecasts sketch out a game with opportunities for both attacks, even though the result probabilities leave more than one outcome in play.