Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Chicago Fire host New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 10, with kick-off at 2:30 p.m. ET. The model gives the home side the strongest chance of a win, while the teams arrive level on wins across their recent form.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. It gives Chicago Fire a 48.6% chance of victory, a draw 24.8%, and a New York City FC win 26.6%; its likeliest result is a Chicago Fire win.
The goals projection leans slightly towards under 2.5 goals at 54.2%, with over 2.5 goals at 45.8% also in the picture. The model gives both teams a 50.2% chance of scoring, while 49.8% is its figure for at least one side failing to score. Expected goals stand at 1.4 for Chicago Fire and 1.1 for New York City FC.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 at 13.4%, 0-0 at 10.6% and 1-0 at 10.1%.
Form and standings
Chicago Fire’s recent sequence is WLLDD: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away win against Charlotte on September 26. New York City FC have the same record across their recent sequence, DLWLD, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded; most recently, they recorded a 2-2 away draw with Atlanta United FC on September 26. New York City FC are without a win in their last 2.
Chicago Fire are 5th in Eastern Conference with 42 points from 26 games, while New York City FC are 9th in Eastern Conference with 33 points from 27 games. Chicago Fire sit above New York City FC.