Published October 25, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Read the preview written before kickoff →
Match report
New York Red Bulls beat Inter Miami 2-0 in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24. The half-time score was 1-0; the final tally was two goals for New York Red Bulls and no goals for Inter Miami, with two goals in all.
The numbers
Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model assigned a New York Red Bulls win 27.9%, a draw 22.2% and an Inter Miami win 49.9%. These probabilities are estimates, not a record of what happened on the pitch. They describe the model’s view before the match, while the final score records the outcome: New York Red Bulls won without conceding. The gap between a forecast and a completed match is central here. The probabilities expressed uncertainty across the available outcomes; they did not rule out a New York Red Bulls victory, even though that was not the model’s most likely outcome. The scoreline supplies a clear result, but the figures alone do not explain how the goals came or what shaped the contest.
How the model called it
The model’s most likely outcome was Inter Miami to win. It gave the actual result 27.9%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. That makes this a case where the forecast’s leading outcome and the match result diverged. The model did not identify New York Red Bulls as its likeliest winner before kick-off, but its estimate for a New York Red Bulls win still allowed for that possibility. The eventual score confirms the win, while the pre-match probabilities show that it was not the model’s central expectation. Those are distinct readings of the same game: one describes what happened, the other the model’s assessment beforehand. No further detail about the sequence of goals or the balance of play is available here, so the result and the forecast remain the firm basis for analysis.