Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order is an NEC Nijmegen win (48.3%), then a Levski Sofia win (26.2%), then a draw (25.6%); its likeliest listed score is 1-1.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is an NEC Nijmegen win, at 48.3%; it gives a draw 25.6% and a Levski Sofia win 26.2%.
The other listed scorelines are 1-0 at 9.2% and 2-1 at 9%. Expected goals are 1.7 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.2 for Levski Sofia. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 54.8% and under 2.5 goals at 45.2%; it gives both teams to score 56.5%, while at least one side fails to score 43.5%. These projections point to a contest in which scoring at both ends is a possibility, but not the only route the model allows. Its scoreline set includes a draw and NEC Nijmegen wins, without a Levski Sofia victory among those listed outcomes.
The bookmakers’ outcomes from likeliest down are an NEC Nijmegen win (50.8%), then a draw (25%), then a Levski Sofia win (24.2%). Against those prices, the model gives an NEC Nijmegen win 48.3%, below the bookmakers' 50.8%. The model therefore points to NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner, while its estimate for that outcome sits below the bookmakers’ implied figure. The forecast does not make a win certain: it also gives meaningful probability to the draw and the away side, and its score projections reflect a range of possible match outcomes.