Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
NEC Nijmegen host Groningen in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 25 at 9:30 a.m. ET, with the model leaning toward the hosts but giving Groningen a substantial chance of taking the result. Groningen sit above NEC Nijmegen in the table, while the recent form details point to two sides arriving from contrasting outcomes.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is an NEC Nijmegen win (41.6%), then a Groningen win (33.5%), then a draw (24.9%). These probabilities are estimates, and the narrow gap between the sides’ chances makes this a closely balanced forecast rather than a clear-cut call. The expected-goals figures are NEC Nijmegen 2.1 and Groningen 1.7, with the model projecting scoring opportunities for both teams.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 71.5% and under 2.5 goals at 28.5%. It assigns 70.8% to both teams scoring and 29.2% to at least one side failing to score. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (10.5%), followed by 2-1 (8%) and 2-2 (6.8%). Those scorelines underline the model’s expectation of goals, while also showing that no single correct score dominates its forecast.
Form and standings
NEC Nijmegen are unbeaten in their last 3. Across their last 5 matches, the record is 4 draws and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-2 home draw with Fortuna Sittard on October 18. The run contains several draws, so the latest result fits a recent pattern of points shared rather than a sequence of victories.