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Match analysis · UEFA Champions League

Research workspace

Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain: Match Analysis & Model Review

Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League, Wednesday, October 14: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Paris Saint Germain claimed a 4-2 win for Paris Saint Germain over Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 14, turning a fast start into a lead that survived a second-half response. The interval score was 0-3, and only Paris Saint Germain ever led.

Manchester City got back into the contest after the break, but Paris Saint Germain answered with another goal before Erling Haaland scored again. Paris Saint Germain’s biggest advantage was a three-goal lead at 0-3.

How it unfolded

Désiré Doue opened the scoring for Paris Saint Germain in the 13th minute, making it 0-1. Ousmane Dembélé extended the lead in the 15th minute, and Vitinha made it 0-3 in the 32nd minute.

Erling Haaland pulled one back for Manchester City in the 53rd minute. Maghnes Akliouche restored Paris Saint Germain’s advantage to a three-goal lead in the 62nd minute, before Haaland completed the scoring in the 75th minute, making the final score 2-4.

The numbers

Manchester City had 27 shots, including 9 on target, and 54% possession. Paris Saint Germain recorded 15 shots, with 10 on target and 46% possession. Expected goals were 2.61 for Manchester City and 1.85 for Paris Saint Germain; the corner count was 11 to 2. Both goalkeepers made 6 saves.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Manchester City’s shot and possession totals did not translate into a result: Paris Saint Germain scored four goals, while Manchester City finished with two goals. Haaland scored two goals, a brace, for Manchester City, but Paris Saint Germain’s early scoring gave them room to withstand the response.

Standout performers

E. Haaland was Manchester City’s best-rated player, earning 8.5 with 2 goals. His goals brought Manchester City back into the match after the interval, though Akliouche’s strike restored Paris Saint Germain’s advantage.

D. Doué led Paris Saint Germain’s ratings at 9.0, with 1 goal and 1 assist. His early goal put his side in front, and his contribution helped set the tone for their strong opening.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Manchester City a win probability of 47.3%, a draw probability of 23.4% and a Paris Saint Germain win probability of 29.3%. Its most likely outcome was Manchester City to win; it gave the actual result a probability of 29.3%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. Paris Saint Germain’s scoring before half-time established the advantage, and their goal after Manchester City’s first reply ensured the comeback did not level the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Champions League

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain

Wed, Oct 14 · 3:00 PM ET · Etihad Stadium

Full time

2–4

Half-time 0–3

  • 13'Désiré Doue0–1
  • 15'Ousmane Dembélé0–2
  • 32'Vitinha0–3
  • 53'Erling Haaland1–3
  • 62'Maghnes Akliouche1–4
  • 75'Erling Haaland2–4

The model before the game

Manchester City
47.3%
Draw
23.4%
Paris Saint Germain
29.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Manchester CityStatisticParis Saint Germain
6saves6
27shots15
11corners2
54%possession46%
2.61expected goals1.85
9shots on target10
Open the Match Center

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