Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Manchester City host Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model makes Manchester City the likeliest winner, but the expected goals and scoring probabilities point to a contest with chances at both ends rather than a straightforward home performance.
Manchester City most recently recorded a 2-0 away win against FC Porto on September 8, while Paris Saint Germain most recently recorded a 6-1 home win against Slovan Bratislava on September 9. The table places Paris Saint Germain above Manchester City on the same points, adding a little context to a fixture in which the model still gives Manchester City the edge.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Manchester City win (46.7%), then a Paris Saint Germain win (29.2%), then a draw (24.1%). Its likeliest result is a Manchester City win, with expected goals of 2 for Manchester City and 1.5 for Paris Saint Germain.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 66.6% and under 2.5 goals at 33.4%, and gives both teams a chance of scoring at 66.5%; it puts the probability of at least one side failing to score at 33.5%. The most likely exact score is 1-1 (9.5%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (6.6%). Those scorelines keep the margin narrow, while the expected goals suggest each side could find a route to the net.