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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Los Angeles FC 3-1 Austin: Match Analysis & Model Review

Los Angeles FC 3-1 Austin in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Home / News / Soccer / Match analysis

Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Los Angeles FC beat Austin in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, after the teams reached half-time at 0-0. The match finished 3-1: a 3-1 win for Los Angeles FC over Austin, with Los Angeles FC scoring three goals and Austin one goal.

The numbers

Los Angeles FC recorded 18 shots, including 6 on target; Austin recorded 6, with 1 on target. The shot figures capture a clear difference in attempts and efforts that tested the goalkeeper, while the expected-goals totals were 1.79 for Los Angeles FC and 0.29 for Austin. Those figures give a measure of the chances created, alongside the final score, without suggesting that possession alone determined the outcome.

Possession was 46% for Los Angeles FC and 54% for Austin. The corner totals were 6 for Los Angeles FC and 3 for Austin, and the saves were 1 for Los Angeles FC and 5 for Austin. Taken together, the figures describe different aspects of the match: time on the ball, opportunities to deliver corners, attempts on goal and the work required of each goalkeeper. Austin had the larger possession share, while the shot and expected-goals figures show the attacking output recorded by each team. The scoreline supplies the outcome; the underlying figures add detail on how the teams’ performances registered across those measures.

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Standout performers

D. Bouanga was Los Angeles FC’s best-rated player, with 1 goal and a rating of 8.1. His contribution included a goal in a match Los Angeles FC won, and the rating marks him out among the performers recorded here.

B. Stuver was Austin’s best-rated player, earning 7.6. The save total for Austin was 5; that figure indicates the work recorded for the team’s goalkeeper, while the rating identifies Stuver as Austin’s highest-rated player.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Los Angeles FC a 62.1% chance of winning, a draw 20.4% and an Austin win 17.5%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Los Angeles FC to win, and it gave the actual result a probability of 62.1%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The model’s pre-match call and the result therefore aligned. The final score confirms the outcome, while the match figures provide context on shots, possession, expected goals, corners and saves. The model’s assessment was made before the match; the recorded performance and result are the evidence from the game itself.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC vs Austin

Wed, Oct 14 · 10:30 PM ET · Banc of California Stadium

Full time

3–1

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Los Angeles FC
62.1%
Draw
20.4%
Austin
17.5%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Los Angeles FCStatisticAustin
1saves5
18shots6
6corners3
46%possession54%
1.79expected goals0.29
6shots on target1
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