Published October 25, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Read the preview written before kickoff →
Match report
A 4-1 win for Lincoln over Burnley in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with Lincoln turning a level half-time score into a clear final margin. The scoreline records a substantial change after the interval, while the model had already identified Lincoln as the likeliest winner before kickoff.
The numbers
The final score was 4-1, with five goals in all. At the break, the score was 1-1; the teams had been level, but the match ended with Lincoln ahead by a wide margin. That contrast is the central numerical story: an even first-half score did not carry through to the final result, and Lincoln finished with four goals against Burnley’s one goal.
The figures establish the scale of the outcome without requiring a more detailed account of how the scoring developed. They show a match that remained level at half-time and was not level at the end. The final margin makes the result clear, but the available score information does not establish when the later goals came or how the balance of play changed.
How the model called it
Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model assigned Lincoln a win probability of 42.5%, a draw probability of 26.8% and a Burnley win probability of 30.7%. These are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Lincoln to win, and it gave that result 42.5%. The model's most likely outcome happened.