Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Inter host Fiorentina in Serie A on Sunday, October 25 at 7:30 a.m. ET. Inter sit above Fiorentina in the table, and the model’s likeliest result is an Inter win.
Inter arrive after a 3-1 away win against Bologna on October 17, with 2 wins in a row. Fiorentina’s latest outing was a 3-1 home defeat to Como on October 18, and they have 2 defeats in a row. Those recent results set up a meeting between sides seeking different kinds of momentum: Inter can build on a positive run, while Fiorentina need a response.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Inter win (69.5%), then a draw (17.4%), then a Fiorentina win (13.1%). Its lean is Inter to win, and its expected-goals figures are Inter 3.3 and Fiorentina 1.6.
The goals forecast points towards an open scoreline: over 2.5 goals at 85.3%, against under 2.5 goals at 14.7%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring, at 76.4%; it assigns 23.6% to at least one side failing to score. Its leading correct-score possibilities are 3-1 (6.8%), 2-1 (6.5%) and 4-1 (5.5%).
The bookmakers’ implied outcomes run an Inter win (69.2%), then a draw (17.7%), then a Fiorentina win (13.1%). In the market comparison, the model gives an Inter win 69.5%, in line with the bookmakers' 69.2%.
Form and standings
Inter have 4 wins and 1 draw across 5 games, with 16 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their sequence, listed most recent first, is WWDWW. Fiorentina have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats across 5 games, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded; their sequence is LLDWL.