Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Cagliari host Bologna in Serie A on Saturday, October 24 at 9:00 a.m. ET. Cagliari arrive unbeaten in their last 4, while the model’s likeliest result is a Bologna win; in the table, Cagliari sit above Bologna. The model’s probabilities are estimates, and they point to a close contest rather than a decisive gap between the sides.
What the model expects
The model ranks the outcomes this way: a Bologna win (37.2%), then a Cagliari win (32.1%), then a draw (30.7%). Its likeliest result is a Bologna win, at 37.2%. The model gives a Bologna win 37.2%, in line with the bookmakers' 38%.
The model projects 1.2 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.3 for Bologna. Its goals outlook leans to under 2.5 goals at 56.2%, with over 2.5 goals at 43.8% also represented. Both teams score in 49% of the model’s projections; at least one side fails to score in 51%.
The leading exact-score projections are 0-1 at 15.2%, 1-0 at 14.1% and 1-1 at 8.8%. They include a narrow win for either team as well as a draw, illustrating how closely grouped the model’s anticipated outcomes are. The forecasts offer several possible routes through the match, rather than a single scoreline dominating the picture.
Form and standings
Cagliari’s recent sequence is DWWWL: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-1 home draw with Juventus on October 11. They are unbeaten in their last 4, and sit 6th in Serie A with 13 points from 6 games. The recent record and current table position give Cagliari a solid backdrop before this fixture.