Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Como host Sassuolo in Serie A on Saturday, October 24 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with the model pointing to a Como win in a meeting between sides coming off contrasting results. Como arrive after a 3-1 away win against Fiorentina on October 18, while Sassuolo most recently suffered a 4-2 away defeat to Frosinone on October 16.
What the model expects
These figures are estimates. The model gives Como a win at 64.2%, a draw at 20.3% and a Sassuolo win at 15.6%; its order of outcomes is a Como win (64.2%), then a draw (20.3%), then a Sassuolo win (15.6%). Its likeliest result is a Como win, and its lean is Como to win.
The expected-goals figures are 1.5 for Como and 0.9 for Sassuolo. The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-0 at 17.8%, 0-1 at 12.2% and 2-0 at 9.8%. Those scorelines point to a close contest in which a narrow Como win is prominent, though the model also allows for a Sassuolo win.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 58.5% and over 2.5 goals at 41.5%; it gives both teams scoring 44.6% and at least one side failing to score 55.4%. The combination of those goal estimates and the leading scorelines frames a game where a shutout is a substantial possibility, rather than an expectation of both sides finding the net.
Form and standings
Como have WDLWW across their last 5 games, a run recorded as 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded. They are unbeaten in their last 2. The latest result, a 3-1 away win against Fiorentina on October 18, gives their recent sequence a winning finish.