Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Napoli host AS Roma in Serie A on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The visitors are unbeaten in their last 5; AS Roma sit above Napoli. The model's likeliest result is an AS Roma win, and its expected-goals figures are Napoli 0.8 and AS Roma 1.3.
The match is at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. Napoli come into it after a 1-0 away defeat to Venezia on October 17, while AS Roma most recently recorded a 2-0 home win against Genoa on October 17. Those results set up a meeting between sides whose latest outings ended differently, with the model pointing to an AS Roma win as its leading outcome.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Napoli 31.3%, a draw 26.7% and AS Roma 42%; its outcomes from likeliest down are an AS Roma win (42%), then a Napoli win (31.3%), then a draw (26.7%). The figures leave room for each outcome, while placing an AS Roma win first in the model's ordering.
The expected-goals projection is Napoli 0.8 and AS Roma 1.3. For the total, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 65.5% and over 2.5 goals at 34.5%. Its figures for both teams scoring are 39.4%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 60.6%.
The leading correct-score possibilities are 0-1 (19.7%), 1-0 (13.8%) and 0-0 (9.8%). The top scoreline has AS Roma winning without conceding, while the other listed outcomes include a Napoli win and a goalless draw. Together, these score estimates offer several possible shapes for a match in which the model's leading outcome is an AS Roma win.