Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Athletic Club host Getafe in La Liga on Sunday, October 25 at 9:00 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is an Athletic Club win, while both teams come into the fixture after a defeat in their most recent match.
What the model expects
The model's probabilities are estimates. It gives Athletic Club 55.6%, a draw 25.9% and Getafe 18.5%; its order of outcomes is an Athletic Club win (55.6%), then a draw (25.9%), then a Getafe win (18.5%). Its lean is Athletic Club to win, with expected goals of 1.5 for Athletic Club and 0.5 for Getafe.
The goals figures point towards a restrained game: under 2.5 goals at 68.2%, against over 2.5 goals at 31.9%. The model gives 28.6% for both teams scoring and 71.4% for at least one side failing to score. Its likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (18.9%), 0-0 (17.6%) and 2-0 (15%).
The bookmakers' outcome order is an Athletic Club win (57.5%), then a draw (22.4%), then a Getafe win (20.1%). The model gives an Athletic Club win 55.6%, below the bookmakers' 57.5%. The model's view is therefore a home win, with its expected-goals figures and scoreline projections also pointing to a low total. The most prominent scoreline in its forecast is 1-0, while the other listed possibilities are 0-0 and 2-0.
Form and standings
Athletic Club have gone LDDDW across their last 5, a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. They are without a win in their last 4; their latest result was a 3-1 away defeat to Levante on October 21. That defeat is the latest entry in a sequence that also includes draws and a win, and leaves Athletic Club seeking a response in this fixture.