Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15 at 3:00 p.m. ET, with both sides looking to respond to opening defeats. The model’s outcome order is a Jagiellonia win (64%), then a draw (19.9%), then an Ararat-Armenia win (16.1%); each side has no points from its opening match.
The game is at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok. The model’s probabilities are estimates, and its likeliest result is a Jagiellonia win.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Jagiellonia win. Its expected-goals figures are Jagiellonia 2 and Ararat-Armenia 0.8. The likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.4%) and 1-1 (9.7%).
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 50.8% and under 2.5 goals at 49.2%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 44.9%, while the likelihood that at least one side fails to score is 55.1%. Its stated lean is Jagiellonia to win.
Form and standings
Jagiellonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat across 5 games, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their sequence, listed most recent first, is LWWDW; the latest entry was a 2-1 away defeat to Olympiakos Piraeus on September 16.
Ararat-Armenia have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat across 3 games, with 3 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their sequence is LWD, and the latest result was a 4-1 home defeat to Sparta Praha on September 16.
In the competition standings, Jagiellonia are 21st in UEFA Europa League with 0 points from 1 game, while Ararat-Armenia are 33rd in UEFA Europa League with 0 points from 1 game. In the table, Jagiellonia sit above Ararat-Armenia on the same points. Neither side has collected a point so far.