Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Jagiellonia host Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Jagiellonia win, while its forecast also assigns chances to an Anderlecht victory and a draw.
The sides arrive with contrasting points totals from their opening league-stage matches: Jagiellonia have 3 points from 2 games, while Anderlecht have 0 points from 2 games. The meeting is at Chorten Arena, Bialystok.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Jagiellonia 45.3%, a draw 25.3% and Anderlecht 29.4%; its ordering is a Jagiellonia win (45.3%), then an Anderlecht win (29.4%), then a draw (25.3%). Its likeliest result is a Jagiellonia win, at 45.3%.
The expected-goals figures are 1.8 for Jagiellonia and 1 for Anderlecht. The listed likely scores are 1-1 at 11.4%, 1-0 at 11.1% and 2-0 at 9.5%. The score probabilities are closely grouped, with a level score among the model’s leading possibilities.
For the total, the model has over 2.5 goals at 50.8% and under 2.5 goals at 49.2%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring, with both teams to score at 51.3%; the figure for at least one side failing to score is 48.7%. These are model projections, not a guarantee of how the match will unfold.
Form and standings
Jagiellonia’s sequence across 5 matches is WLWWD, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. The latest result was a 3-1 home win against Ararat-Armenia on October 15. The results include wins, a draw and a defeat, while the goals record shows Jagiellonia have scored and conceded across the sequence.