Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Ipswich host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Friday, October 23 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Nottingham Forest win, though its probabilities leave a substantial chance of an Ipswich win or a draw. Ipswich sit above Nottingham Forest, but the teams arrive on different recent runs.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Nottingham Forest win (39.6%), then an Ipswich win (33%), then a draw (27.4%). It gives Ipswich 33%, a draw 27.4% and Nottingham Forest 39.6%; its likeliest result is a Nottingham Forest win.
The model's goal figures lean towards over 2.5 goals at 58.8%, with under 2.5 goals at 41.2% also in its forecast. Its lean is over 2.5 goals. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 61.1%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 38.9%. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ipswich and 1.6 for Nottingham Forest.
The likeliest score is 1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-0 (7.8%). The model gives a Nottingham Forest win 39.6%, below the bookmakers' 42.1%. The bookmakers' outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Nottingham Forest win (42.1%), then an Ipswich win (31.1%), then a draw (26.8%).
Form and standings
Ipswich sit 10th in Premier League with 9 points from 7 games, and Ipswich sit above Nottingham Forest. Their most recent result was a 3-2 away defeat to Manchester City on October 17. In their latest sequence, LWLWL, they have 2 wins and 3 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. That leaves a mixed run heading into a fixture in which the model gives them a meaningful chance of taking the points.