Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Houston Dynamo host Minnesota United FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 8:30 p.m. ET. The hosts arrive after a 2-2 home draw with FC Dallas on October 17, while the visitors come off a 3-2 home win against St. Louis City on October 17; Goalorithm’s model places a Houston win first in its outcome order, but also gives weight to a draw and an away win.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Houston Dynamo win (42.9%), then a Minnesota United FC win (29.5%), then a draw (27.6%), and its likeliest result is a Houston Dynamo win. It expects 1.7 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.4 for Minnesota United FC, with over 2.5 goals at 58.2% and under 2.5 goals at 41.8% in its goals forecast. Its both-teams-to-score figure is 59.9%, while 40.1% covers the chance that at least one side fails to score.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 12.2%; next come 2-1 at 8.8% and 0-0 at 7.4%. The leading score is level, while the next listed score has Houston ahead and the third has neither side scoring. Those scorelines give a sense of the range in the forecast, rather than a single settled script for the match.
Form and standings
Houston’s recent sequence is DDDLD, with 4 draws and 1 defeat and 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their latest outing, a 2-2 home draw with FC Dallas on October 17, extended a run in which they are unbeaten in their last 3. The sequence includes several draws, and the figures record goals at both ends across those games.