Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Heerenveen host Excelsior in Eredivisie on Friday, October 16, with the sides close together in the table and the model's likeliest result a Heerenveen win. The recent results offer little separation: each team has the same record across its latest run, while Excelsior arrive after a heavy defeat.
What the model expects
The model gives Heerenveen 51.5%, a draw 24.2% and Excelsior 24.4%; these are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Heerenveen win, with the outcomes ordered a Heerenveen win (51.5%), then an Excelsior win (24.4%), then a draw (24.2%). The bookmakers' ordering is a Heerenveen win (57.1%), then a draw (23.4%), then an Excelsior win (19.5%); the model gives a Heerenveen win 51.5%, below the bookmakers' 57.1%.
For the goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It puts both teams scoring at 52.5%, against 47.5% for at least one side to fail to score. Expected goals are 1.4 for Heerenveen and 1.2 for Excelsior. Those figures point to a close scoring outlook rather than a large projected gap between the sides. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (15.5%), 0-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (8.2%); 1-1 and 0-0 are draws, while 2-1 is a home win.
Form and standings
Heerenveen are 10th in Eredivisie with 9 points from 8 games, while Excelsior are 9th in Eredivisie with 11 points from 8 games; Excelsior sit above Heerenveen. The standings give Excelsior the edge in points, but the model's likeliest result points the other way. That contrast makes the match a useful test of whether the table position or the model's home-win expectation proves more relevant on the day.