Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FC Dallas host San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 8:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Stadium, Frisco. The model’s outcome order is a San Jose Earthquakes win (37.3%), then an FC Dallas win (36.3%), then a draw (26.4%); both clubs arrive unbeaten in their current runs, and FC Dallas sit above San Jose Earthquakes.
There is little to separate the sides in the model’s expected goals, which stand at 1.7 for FC Dallas and 1.7 for San Jose Earthquakes. The forecast points to a contest where either side can find the net, with the model’s likeliest scoreline level at 1-1.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a San Jose Earthquakes win. Its leading exact score is 1-1 at 11.2%, followed by 1-2 at 7.9% and 2-1 at 7.7%.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 64.1% and under 2.5 goals at 35.9%. It puts both teams scoring at 65.3%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 34.7%. The expected-goals figures are level, and the leading exact score is a draw. The outcome order nevertheless places an away win first, followed by a home win and then a draw.
Form and standings
FC Dallas are 3rd in Western Conference with 51 points from 30 games. Their form sequence is DWLWD; across that spell they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. They are unbeaten in their last 2, and their latest result was a 2-2 away draw with Houston Dynamo on October 17.