Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Dinamo Zagreb host Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order is a Dinamo Zagreb win (47.3%), then a draw (26.7%), then an Anderlecht win (26%), while the teams arrive with contrasting recent records and both have reported absentees. The fixture is at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, and the model’s projections point to a contest with goals possible at both ends.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Dinamo Zagreb win, and it gives Dinamo Zagreb 47.3%, a draw 26.7% and an Anderlecht win 26%. These probabilities and projections are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are 1.7 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.2 for Anderlecht, setting out the scoring expectation for each side without making a single scoreline certain.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 53.1% and under 2.5 goals at 46.9%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 55.2%, while 44.8% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. The leading exact-score projections are 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9%). The score forecasts include a draw and wins for either side, so the model’s central expectation is not confined to one exact outcome.
Form and standings
Dinamo Zagreb have the sequence DDLLW across their last 5 games, amounting to 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest outing was a 0-0 away draw with Hapoel Beer Sheva on September 16; they are also unbeaten in their last 2. The sequence gives the recent record some context, while the latest result provides the most recent point of reference before this fixture.