Published September 29, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Chicago White Sox visit the Houston Astros in MLB on Thursday, October 1, with first pitch at 5:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game. Their most recent meeting was Chicago White Sox 6-3 on September 29.
What the model expects
The model's win estimates are 48.4% for the Houston Astros and 51.6% for the Chicago White Sox; they are estimates, not certainties. The model's likelier result is a Chicago White Sox win. Its expected score is Houston Astros 4.5, Chicago White Sox 4.7, for 9.2 total runs. The model gives the Houston Astros a 31.5% chance to win by two runs or more, and the Chicago White Sox a 34.6% chance.
Form and standings
The Houston Astros finished the regular season 81-81, with -32 in run differential after 734 runs scored and 766 allowed. The Chicago White Sox finished 84-78, with +56 in run differential after 776 runs scored and 720 allowed; the Chicago White Sox have the better record.
The Houston Astros went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 37 runs scored and 19 allowed. Their latest was a 6-3 home loss to the Chicago White Sox on September 29. The Chicago White Sox went 4-1 in their last 5 games, with 31 runs scored and 16 allowed, and 2 straight wins; their latest was a 6-3 road win over the Houston Astros on September 29.
The Houston Astros bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA, while the Chicago White Sox bullpen posted a 3.70 ERA; the Chicago White Sox bullpen has the lower ERA.