Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Chicago White Sox visit the Cleveland Guardians in MLB on Monday, October 5, with first pitch at 5:00 p.m. ET. The regular season is complete, and this is a postseason game.
What the model expects
The model's likelier result is a Cleveland Guardians win, giving the Cleveland Guardians 51.2%; it gives the Chicago White Sox 48.8%. These are estimates, not certainties. The model projects 4.4 runs for the Cleveland Guardians and 4.4 for the Chicago White Sox, 8.8 in all. Its chance of the Cleveland Guardians winning by two runs or more is 33.2%, while its chance of the Chicago White Sox doing so is 32.2%.
Form and standings
The Cleveland Guardians finished the regular season 85-77, with a run differential of +11 (678 runs scored and 667 allowed). The Chicago White Sox finished 84-78, with a run differential of +56 (776 runs scored and 720 allowed); the Cleveland Guardians have the better record.
The Cleveland Guardians went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 26 runs scored and 18 allowed; most recently, the Cleveland Guardians had a 3-2 road loss to the Kansas City Royals on September 27. The Chicago White Sox went 4-1 in their last 5 games, with 29 runs scored and 18 allowed. The Chicago White Sox most recently had a 7-3 road win over the Houston Astros on September 30 and are on 3 straight wins.