Published September 27, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Chicago Cubs visit the San Diego Padres in MLB on Thursday, October 1, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game; the model's likelier result is a Chicago Cubs win.
What the model expects
The model gives the San Diego Padres 47.6% to win and the Chicago Cubs 52.4%; those probabilities are estimates. It projects 4.2 runs for the San Diego Padres and 4.5 for the Chicago Cubs, 8.7 in all.
The model assigns the San Diego Padres a 30.5% chance and the Chicago Cubs a 34.9% chance of winning by two runs or more.
Form and standings
The San Diego Padres finished the regular season 91-71 overall, with a run differential of +41 (722 runs scored and 681 allowed). The Chicago Cubs finished 89-73, with a run differential of +147 (850 runs scored and 703 allowed). The San Diego Padres have the better record.
The San Diego Padres went 4-1 in their last 5 games, with 35 runs scored and 23 allowed, and are on 4 straight wins. Their latest result was a 4-1 home win over the Chicago Cubs on September 30. The Chicago Cubs went 1-4 in their last 5 games, with 10 runs scored and 20 allowed, and are on 2 straight losses; their latest result was a 4-1 road loss to the San Diego Padres on September 30.
The recent meetings were San Diego Padres 4-1 on September 30 and San Diego Padres 8-0 on September 29. The San Diego Padres bullpen has a 3.53 ERA this season, while the Chicago Cubs bullpen has a 3.90 ERA; the San Diego Padres bullpen has the lower ERA.