Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: San Diego Padres 8–0 Chicago Cubs. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Chicago Cubs visit the San Diego Padres in MLB on Tuesday, September 29, with first pitch at 10:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game. The model's likelier result is a Chicago Cubs win; its estimates are not certainties.
What the model expects
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 47.6% chance to win and the Chicago Cubs a 52.4% chance. Its expected runs are San Diego Padres 4.3, Chicago Cubs 4.5, for 8.8 in all. The model gives the San Diego Padres a 30.6% chance and the Chicago Cubs a 35% chance to win by two runs or more.
Form and standings
The San Diego Padres finished the regular season at 91-71, with a run differential of +41 and 722 runs scored and 681 allowed. The Chicago Cubs finished at 89-73, with a run differential of +147 and 850 runs scored and 703 allowed; the San Diego Padres have the better record.
The San Diego Padres went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 23 runs scored and 28 allowed. Their results, most recent first, were WLWWL. The San Diego Padres' latest was a 10-7 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 26.