Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Celta Vigo host Juventus in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Juventus win; Celta Vigo arrive after a defeat and with 0 points from 1 game, while Juventus have 3 points from 1 game.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Juventus win, and its full ordering is a Juventus win (46.6%), then a draw (28.8%), then a Celta Vigo win (24.6%).
The goals forecast leans towards under 2.5 goals at 56.3%, rather than over 2.5 goals at 43.7%. The model expects 1 for Celta Vigo and 1.5 for Juventus. Its leading scorelines are 1-1 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.3%) and 0-0 (10.6%).
The model gives 47.5% to both teams scoring and 52.5% to at least one side failing to score. That latter figure does not mean a goalless draw. The bookmakers' outcome ordering is a Juventus win (43.6%), then a draw (29%), then a Celta Vigo win (27.4%); the model gives a Juventus win 46.6%, above the bookmakers' 43.6%.
Form and standings
Celta Vigo's last 5 games read LLLWD, most recent first. Across that span, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away defeat to Omonia Nicosia on September 16, and they are on 3 defeats in a row.
Celta Vigo are 25th in UEFA Europa League with 0 points from 1 game; Juventus are 1st in UEFA Europa League with 3 points from 1 game. Juventus sit above Celta Vigo.