Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Cardiff host Birmingham in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Birmingham win; Cardiff are unbeaten in their last 2, and Birmingham have 3 wins in a row. Birmingham sit above Cardiff.
What the model expects
The model gives Cardiff 32.5%, a draw 28% and Birmingham 39.5%; its outcomes from likeliest down are a Birmingham win (39.5%), then a Cardiff win (32.5%), then a draw (28%). The model's expected goals are 1.3 for Cardiff and 1.5 for Birmingham.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 50.6% and under 2.5 goals at 49.4%. It assigns 54.4% to both teams scoring and 45.6% to at least one side failing to score. Its leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (8.7%).
Form and standings
Birmingham’s recent sequence is WWWDW, with the most recent match first. That spell comprises 4 wins and 1 draw, alongside 12 goals scored and 3 conceded; the latest result was a 3-0 home win against QPR on October 17. Birmingham have 3 wins in a row. Cardiff’s sequence is DWLWL, likewise listed most recent first. Its record across that spell is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. The latest match was a 2-2 away draw with Middlesbrough on October 17, and the team is unbeaten in their last 2.
Cardiff sit 19th in Championship with 11 points from 11 games, while Birmingham sit 4th in Championship with 20 points from 11 games. Birmingham sit above Cardiff. The standings set the scene for a meeting between teams arriving in different positions, with Birmingham bringing a run of results that includes a 3-0 home win against QPR on October 17 and Cardiff coming off a 2-2 away draw with Middlesbrough on October 17.