Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Burnley host Wolves in the Championship on Friday, October 16, with the model making Wolves the likeliest winner. The sides arrive with contrasting recent sequences: Burnley are unbeaten in their last 3, while Wolves have 2 defeats in a row.
The meeting is at Turf Moor, Burnley, with kick-off scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET. Wolves sit above Burnley, and the model’s outcome order also places Wolves first. The probabilities are estimates, but the numbers point to a game in which the visitors have the stronger chance of taking all the points.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Wolves win (41.8%), then a Burnley win (31.3%), then a draw (27%). Its expected-goals figures are Burnley 1.5 and Wolves 1.7, a projection that gives both sides a route to scoring while placing Wolves slightly ahead on expected goals.
The model leans towards over 2.5 goals. It gives over 2.5 goals at 59.4% and under 2.5 goals at 40.6%; it also gives both teams to score 61.5%, against 38.5% for at least one side to fail to score. Those goal projections make an open scoreline a clear possibility, rather than suggesting the match is likely to be decided by one side shutting the other out.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%, followed by 1-2 at 8.4% and 2-1 at 7.4%. The top scoreline is a draw, even though a Wolves win leads the model’s overall outcome order. That distinction captures the uncertainty in a fixture where a narrow away win and a shared result both feature among the leading score predictions.