Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s central expectation is a Bournemouth win, and its projected goal figures point to a larger expected output for the hosts. Sturm Graz come into the fixture after a 0-0 home draw with Rennes on September 16; in the table, Bournemouth sit above Sturm Graz.
The match is at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. The line-ups have not been announced. Reported absences and doubts offer the available team-news picture, but do not confirm who will start.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Bournemouth 77.3%, a draw 14.4% and Sturm Graz 8.3%; its likeliest result is a Bournemouth win. Its ordering of outcomes is a Bournemouth win (77.3%), then a draw (14.4%), then a Sturm Graz win (8.3%). The model’s lean is Bournemouth to win, with expected goals of 2.9 for Bournemouth and 0.9 for Sturm Graz.
The model assigns over 2.5 goals at 70.3% and under 2.5 goals at 29.6% to the respective goal totals. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 53.9%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 46.1%. The most likely exact scores are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.2%). Those score forecasts all have Bournemouth ahead, while the both-teams-to-score estimate leaves room for either side to be shut out.
The bookmakers’ implied outcome ordering is a Bournemouth win (80.4%), then a draw (12.5%), then a Sturm Graz win (7.1%). The model gives a Bournemouth win 77.3%, below the bookmakers' 80.4%. That comparison concerns the win probability; the goal and scoring estimates are the model’s own projections for how the match may unfold.