Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bournemouth host AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET, at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. The standings put the sides in different positions, while Goalorithm’s model gives a Bournemouth win as the likeliest result. The forecast also leaves meaningful probability on a draw and an AC Milan win, making the full outcome picture more nuanced than the leading selection alone suggests.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Bournemouth win (49.6%), then a draw (25.9%), then an AC Milan win (24.5%). These probabilities are estimates. The expected-goals figures are Bournemouth 1.6 and AC Milan 1.1, setting out the model’s projected scoring for each side without settling the final score. Its goal-line outlook is over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%; for both teams to score, the model gives 51.5%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 48.5%.
The scorelines at the top of the model’s list are 1-1 at 11.9%, 1-0 at 10.9% and 2-1 at 9%. They offer several possible shapes for the contest rather than a single score that carries the forecast. The broader outcome probabilities remain the model’s central view: a Bournemouth win (49.6%), then a draw (25.9%), then an AC Milan win (24.5%). Taken together, the figures describe a fixture where the model’s leading result is a home win, but neither a draw nor an away win is ruled out by the forecast.