Published September 28, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees in MLB on Thursday, October 1, with first pitch set for 8:00 p.m. ET.
What the model expects
The model's likelier result is a New York Yankees win, with 52.1%; it gives the Boston Red Sox 47.9% to win. These are estimates, not certainties. It projects 4.1 runs for the New York Yankees and 4 for the Boston Red Sox, 8.1 in all. Its chances of a win by two runs or more are 33.7% for the New York Yankees and 30.2% for the Boston Red Sox.
Pitching matchup
The New York Yankees are expected to start right-hander Gerrit Cole, whose season line is a 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 127 innings (22 starts). The Boston Red Sox counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez, carrying a 3.22 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 148⅓ innings (28 starts); Ranger Suarez has the lower ERA. Probable starters can change before first pitch. The New York Yankees bullpen has a 3.15 ERA, while the Boston Red Sox bullpen has a 3.00 ERA; the Boston Red Sox bullpen has the lower ERA.
Form and standings
The New York Yankees are 93-68 overall, with a +138 run differential, 739 runs scored and 601 allowed. The Boston Red Sox are 87-75, with a +78 run differential, 689 runs scored and 611 allowed; the New York Yankees have the better record.