Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Barcelona host Real Madrid in La Liga on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 4:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Barcelona win, and Barcelona sit above Real Madrid.
The match is at Camp Nou, Barcelona. Barcelona come into the fixture after a 5-2 away win against Real Betis on October 17, while Real Madrid most recently recorded a 4-1 home win against Sevilla on October 18. The sides’ recent meetings are evenly split, with no draws in the sample.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Barcelona 61.4% to win, a draw 18.6%, and Real Madrid 20.1% to win. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Barcelona win (61.4%), then a Real Madrid win (20.1%), then a draw (18.6%).
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 80%, while under 2.5 goals at 20%. The model gives both teams a 69.3% chance to score, and assigns 30.7% to at least one side failing to score. Expected goals are 3.1 for Barcelona and 1.3 for Real Madrid.
The likeliest scorelines are 2-1 at 7.5%, 3-1 at 7.5%, and 1-1 at 6.3%. The model’s lean is Barcelona to win. These figures describe different parts of the forecast: the outcome probabilities cover the result, while the scorelines give examples of specific outcomes the model rates most prominently.
Form and standings
Barcelona have 5 wins across their last 5 games, with 22 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their sequence, listed most recent first, is WWWWW. They arrive on 5 wins in a row, after a 5-2 away win against Real Betis on October 17.