Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AZ Alkmaar host Twente in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The model's likeliest result is an AZ Alkmaar win, though its estimates leave a draw and an away win firmly in the picture.
What the model expects
The model gives AZ Alkmaar 40.5%, a draw 26.1% and Twente 33.4%. These are estimates. Its outcome order is an AZ Alkmaar win (40.5%), then a Twente win (33.4%), then a draw (26.1%), with no outcome reaching half of the model's probability. That leaves this fixture finely poised in the model's view, even as it identifies an AZ win as the likeliest individual result.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 55.3% and under 2.5 goals at 44.7%. It puts both teams scoring at 57.1%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 42.9%. The expected-goals estimates are 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.2 for Twente.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 14.1%. The other leading score estimates are 0-0 at 10.1% and 2-1 at 8.9%. The level scoreline at the top of that list sits alongside a model preference for an AZ win, while the goals estimates allow for either a more open contest or a lower-scoring one.
Form and standings
AZ Alkmaar sit above Twente: AZ Alkmaar are 2nd in Eredivisie with 20 points from 9 games, and Twente are 4th in Eredivisie with 17 points from 8 games. AZ's most recent 5 games read DLWDW, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest match was a 2-2 away draw with Cambuur on October 18; they are without a win in their last 2.