Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is an AZ Alkmaar win, while the current table has Hapoel Beer Sheva sit above AZ Alkmaar.
The match is at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar. Line-ups are not announced yet. The model’s view is clear on the likely outcome, while its score projections leave room for different ways the game could play out. A win, a draw and a victory for the visitors all feature in the forecast, with the model’s ordering setting out how it weighs those outcomes.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes run an AZ Alkmaar win (67.2%), then a draw (18.2%), then a Hapoel Beer Sheva win (14.6%), and its lean is AZ Alkmaar to win. Its forecast makes AZ Alkmaar the likeliest winner, with a draw and a Hapoel Beer Sheva win also in the picture.
For goals, the model has over 2.5 goals at 63.9% and under 2.5 goals at 36.1%. It gives both teams scoring 56.7%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 43.3%. Those figures point towards a game in which goals are plausible, but do not rule out either side being kept off the scoresheet.
Expected goals are 2.4 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.5%). The forecast therefore covers both a win for the hosts and a draw among its leading exact-score possibilities. The model’s expected-goals figures also give a sense of the balance it anticipates, while the scoreline probabilities show that no single result dominates the list.